Elon Musk: Starship has a 50/50 chance of reaching orbit on first try

SpaceX prepares for first orbital Starship launch attempt

SpaceX successfully completed a full flight-like wet dress rehearsal of Starship in late January, leading Musk to state that the private space firm would likely make an orbital launch attempt in February or March.

It's now more than 18 months since a Starship prototype last lifted off as part of a series of high-altitude flight and landing tests beginning in 2021. Those test flights were never intended to go to orbit, though they did lead to a few explosive landing attempts as well as a series of impressive belly flop maneuvers.

The upcoming orbital test flight will be the first time SpaceX attempts to reach orbit with Starship. It will also be the first time the company launches its Super Heavy booster, which is the first stage that will propel the Starship upper stage to orbit.

Elon Musk: Starship launch attempt "won't be boring"

"I'm not saying it will get to orbit but I am guaranteeing excitement," Musk said during the call, as per Forbes, in a remark that echoed a recent tweet of his regarding Starship. “It won’t be boring."

Musk's latest comments reflect the challenge of getting a spacecraft to orbit for the first time. Back in 2008, in fact, SpaceX was very close to bankruptcy before it finally reached orbit for the first time with the fourth launch of its Falcon 1 rocket.

“We don’t want to be one of those lame, one-planet, civilizations, please!!” - @elonmusk today live on Morgan Stanley Conference. 🎬 pic.twitter.com/pxOC6PwNSW

— Gail Alfar 💙 (@GailAlfarATX) March 7, 2023

"This is a very difficult program," Musk added during the Morgan Stanley call. "Hopefully (it has) above a 50 percent chance of reaching orbit." Musk also mentioned that he believes Starship has an 80 percent chance of reaching orbit this year. However, it may be a few years before the Starship program can achieve full reusability, which Musk described as "the profound breakthrough that is needed to extend life beyond Earth."